Bangkok's political turmoil is damaging regional stability.
Fighting over the disputed territory surrounding the Preah Vihear Temple along the Thai-Cambodia border resumed last Friday, with both sides trading artillery fire and accusations of targeting civilian villages throughout the weekend. The Associated Press reports 12 soldiers confirmed dead.
The world may never know which side started the latest clash, since Thailand continues to resist allowing international observers to monitor the area. And both countries deserve some blame for stirring the pot at various times. Nevertheless, it has become increasingly clear that the Thai military is doing nothing to ease the tension.
That much we know from the way that the military, and then Bangkok, vetoed initiatives to get the two sides talking. After the last major bout of fighting in February, Cambodia succeeded in bringing the matter to the United Nations Security Council, which promptly kicked it back to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Indonesia, the chair of Asean this year, has played shuttle diplomacy trying to bring the two sides together, but Bangkok continues to balk. That has allowed Cambodia to play the aggrieved and more reasonable party.
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Associated Press
Thailand's unwillingness to even contemplate compromise may be due to the broader impasse in its domestic politics. In 2008, the royalist People's Alliance for Democracy, more commonly known as the yellow shirts, took up the temple issue as a cudgel against the government of Samak Sundaravej. The same group has now turned on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and is castigating him for not taking more aggressive action to recover the temple.
Meanwhile, the military is positioning itself as the main defender of the monarchy and Thai sovereignty. Tension between the military and the civilian government has been mounting since Mr. Abhisit announced elections would be held within the next few months. Bangkok is rife with rumors that a coup is imminent.
The military, palace and business elite all fear that supporters of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will win their fourth straight general election. The last three results were annulled by a coup and court rulings, and the red shirt supporters of Mr. Thaksin have become increasingly restive as a result of their disenfranchisement. Even if their Puea Thai Party wins, there is a strong chance they will not be allowed to form a government. So further unrest later this year seems likely.
In this context, a fight with Cambodia might seem an appealing way out of the deadlock. A limited war with a much smaller neighbor could unify Thais, as the red shirts would feel pressure to get behind the military in a time of national crisis. Mr. Abhisit, who has never won an election and is widely regarded as a figurehead within Thailand, could be dispensed with, and elections pushed off until the glow of victory and massive public spending restore the Bangkok elite's popularity.
Perhaps the Thai military understands how much could go wrong with such a scenario and is only engaging in brinksmanship. But even this runs the risk of accidental escalation. And once a conflict starts, Asean nations would be put in the impossible position of having to choose sides, which might tear the organization apart.
Thailand's friends have a responsibility to dissuade the military from military adventures. It's also time they addressed the root cause of the problem. This conflict is a sign that the nation's internal political crisis is beginning to generate external costs, showing once again that Asean's credo of noninterference in domestic politics needs to be tempered with an awareness that promotion of democracy is part and parcel of regional stability.
As long as the military is allowed to play its pivotal role in national politics, Thailand will fail to play its rightful role as a stabilizing force in Southeast Asia.
Source: WSJ
Clips worsen case of detained Thais; govt stresses bilateral ties
Thailand yesterday urged Cambodia to consider the two neighbours' bilateral relations when dealing with seven Thais, including a Democrat MP, who were arrested and charged with illegal entry into Cambodia last week.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said the Thai government would fully respect Cambodia's laws and decisions on the cases.
"[But] what we should do now is to ask Cambodia to think of the relations between both countries being restored after the unpleasant events of the past," he said.
Suthep said he was more than ready to go to Cambodia to help the situation if necessary.
"What we could do now is to pray for the Cambodian leader to take into consideration our attempts to restore mutual ties, which have improved after two separate meetings between our prime ministers," Suthep said.
He said he would wait until after the New Year festival to see if there was any development and reaction from the Phnom Penh side.
Panich Vikitsech, a Bangkok Democrat MP, and Veera Somkwamkid, a People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader, are among the group arrested last Wednesday while visiting Thai villagers near the Sa Kaew border, which is opposite Cambodia's Banteay Meanchay.
They were taken to Phnom Penh and detained in a central prison in Phnom Penh pending trial.
The group was charged last week with illegal entry into Cambodia and entering a Cambodian military base without permission. The Cambodian court has not yet set a date for their trial.
Meanwhile two video clips recorded during Panich's trip to the site were distributed on YouTube on Sunday. Panich was heard talking on a telephone and telling someone to tell an aide of the prime minister he was on Cambodian territory.
The clips are believed to make more difficult any defence of the seven Thais because from what Panich said, he was well aware he was on Cambodian soil. Thailand initially planned a defence that the group unintentionally strayed into Cambodia.
Suthep said the issue was now a matter of Cambodian sovereignty and legal process, which Thailand had to respect.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said he would discuss the matter in today's Cabinet meeting.
"We are now trying to contact the Cambodian side, but it is not easy. We will however keep trying. All the matters concerning the case depend on Cambodian's reaction."
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya and Foreign Ministry spokesman Thani Thongphakdi confirmed the seven Thais were inside Cambodia when arrested. Thani said the Royal Survey Department and Foreign Ministry officials had inspected the disputed area and confirmed the group had been on Cambodian soil.
Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, secretary to the Thai foreign minister, said families of the seven Thais had visited them in Prey Sor prison in Phnom Penh.
The visitors, including Panich's wife, spent about one hour there. All were in good spirits and fine, Chavanond said.
He said he was not sure whether the seven Thais would go before the court today. If the trial starts, their lawyer will submit a bail request for them.
A group of 500 villagers from Sa Kaew's Khok Sung district gathered in front of the district office yesterday to protest against a planned rally by PAD supporters, demanding that it be cancelled, as it would bring trouble to the site.
The Thailand Patriot Network, a splinter group of the PAD, plans to hold the protest near the site where the seven Thais were arrested.
Its leader, Chaiwat Sinsuwoung, declined to disclose the specific protest site, but pledged that it would be held as planned to demand the release of the seven, as they were arrested in Thailand.
Meanwhile PAD spokesman Panthep Puapongpan said Panich had contacted Thepmontri Limpayom, a PADmember, on December 26 and persuaded him to accompany him to the site in question.
Panthep quoted Panich as telling Thepmontri the visit was organised at the order of Abhisit.
However, Thepmontri refused, and Panich invited Veera, a core leader of the Thailand Patriot Network, to go with him.
